Fire Cinderbloom ComboTier 1
at MVG HVN Regional 4/6
decks
4
(8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
13-7-2
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1280
· median 1254
· range 1100–1511
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1134
Q3 1327
1511
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +6.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Diana | 4.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Exia | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Cinderbloom Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
